Inflation and the Factors Affecting it (Turkey Standard Study 1980-2013)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25007/ajnu.v8n1a336Abstract
Inflation is one of the most important economic problems facing most of the economies of the world, both developing and developed, because of its profound and complex impact on all sectors of society and the various sectors of the economy, individuals, the business sector and the government sector. The past decades have witnessed significant increases in global inflation rates in some countries to double or more, which has negatively affected the volatility of economic growth rates. The main objective of this study is to explain the causes of inflation and the factors affecting it in Turkey during the period 1980-2013. The theoretical side dealt with the analysis of external and internal factors affecting inflation, while the practical side included the use of many standard methods of time series, foremost of which is the identification of the stability of data using the methods of PP, ADF, followed by the detection of whether there is a long-term balance relationship between the estimated variables Using the Johansson GISLIS technique, and then identifying the short-term relationship using the ECM model. Finally, the researcher attempted to identify the direction of the causal relationship using the Kanger method, which is very important for economic policymakers to identify Z reservoirs key bottlenecks in implementing economic programs. In order to identify the effect of financial fluctuations and the resulting imbalances in the macroeconomic variables, the researcher used the ARCH model, which is the best in this field. The results of the research are: There is a complementarity between internal and external factors in the impact on the price level and The inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment (of the Phillips track) has been achieved in Turkey.
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