Artificial Neural Network Technique for Annual Rainfall Generation Applied to Three Selected Sites in Kurdistan Region, Iraq

Authors

  • Gaheen Sarma College of Engineering, Water Resources Department, University of Duhok, Duhok, Kurdistan-Iraq
  • Evan Hajani College of Engineering, Water Resources Department, University of Duhok, Duhok, Kurdistan-Iraq

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25007/ajnu.v12n4a1672

Abstract

Predicting rainfall is one of the more difficult tasks involved in weather forecasting. Due to extreme climate variations, it is now harder than ever to predict rainfall accurately. In the current study, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has been used to forecast the annual maximum rainfall (AMR) data from 1990 to 2021 at three chosen stations (i.e., Duhok, Erbil, and Sulaymaniya) in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. The Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) approach of ANN models was applied in generating and forecasting the AMR time series of the adopted stations. Model performance indicators such as model efficiency, correlation coefficient, root mean square error, and root mean absolute error were used to evaluate the performance of ANN for the annual rainfall prediction. The ANN models were used to forecast the AMR data for the upcoming five years (2022 to 2026). The study reveals that the MLP approach of the ANN models, which we have used is the most appropriate tool for forecasting the AMR data series in the three selected stations in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq for future time periods.

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Author Biography

Evan Hajani, College of Engineering, Water Resources Department, University of Duhok, Duhok, Kurdistan-Iraq

Dr. Evan Hajani is a Lecturer in Hydrological Engineering at Duhok University, Kurdistan Region, Iraq. She obtained her bachelor’s degree in Water Resources Engineering from Duhok University in 2005, her master’s degree in Hydrology from Duhok University in 2010, and her Ph.D. from Western Sydney University, Australia in 2018. She worked as a demonstrator from 2005–2007 and as an assistant lecturer from 2010–2012 at Duhok University; Department of Water Resources Engineering. Evan worked as a water engineer and hydrologist at EnviroWater Sydney Pty Ltd, in Sydney, Australia in 2016; and as a sessional academic member at Western Sydney University, NSW, Australia 2014–2017. Currently, she is a lecturer at Duhok University, and she is supervising 1 Master-by-Research student. She has authored over 28 publications, including journal articles, conference papers, and book chapters.

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Published

2023-12-12

How to Cite

Sarma, G., & Hajani, E. (2023). Artificial Neural Network Technique for Annual Rainfall Generation Applied to Three Selected Sites in Kurdistan Region, Iraq. Academic Journal of Nawroz University, 12(4), 1079–1091. https://doi.org/10.25007/ajnu.v12n4a1672

Issue

Vol. 12 No. 4 (2023)

Section

Articles

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