the measurement and analysis of the working mechanism of the triple deficit and twin deficit in (OECD) countries by using generalized method of moment GMM for the period (2009-2017)
This paper finds the work and mechanism of assessing the triple deficit hypothesis in light of those developments in the global economy. This study examines experimentally the relationship between the fiscal deficit, current account deficit and the savings gap with the other determinants that contra del the variable in the study, such as exchange rates and the trade open for 21 economies of Economic Cooperation Organization (OECD) countries in the period 2009-2017. In economic literature, the relationship between current account deficit and the public budget deficit has taken place on a large scale, and this relationship has developed until other sectors, such as the savings gap, are included. The study used a dynamic panel model method, relying on the generalized Method of Moment GMM, and the Estimated Error Correction (PMG/ARDL Pooled Mean Group, ARDL Estimation) model). The study shows the interaction between the public budget deficit, the savings gap, and current-account deficit in the short- and long-term, And the speed of adjustment in the short term to reach the equilibrium level in the long term is (0.59%) in a year. The study also found that there is a role for fiscal policy and the savings gap is increasing the current account deficit.
The results of the study also indicated the possibility of performing the triple deficit hypothesis for the countries examined, through the impact of the fiscal deficit and the savings gap in the current account so that the increase in the budget deficit and the savings gap leads to a rise in the current account deficit. The study was based on a sample in each of the descriptive analyses as well as the econometric analysis of the variables under consideration by using software (EViews - 10).
1- المصادر باللغة العربية
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الكسواني، ممدوح الخطيب، العلاقة بين عجزي الموازنة والحساب الجاري في المملكة العربية السعودية دراسات اقتصادية، السلسلة العلمية لجمعية الاقتصاد السعودية، المجلد الثالث، عدد6، 2001.
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بهياني رضا وبختي فريد، الحرية الاقتصادية والنمو الاقتصادي في الدول العربية – دراسة قياسية باستخدام نماذج بانل الديناميكي خلال الفترة (2006-2017)، مجلة الاستراتيجية والتنمية، المجلد 10, العد 1 , 2020.
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