Measuring the Impact of Some Macroeconomic Variables on the Stock Price Index in the Iraq Stock Exchange for the period (2006-2015)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25007/ajnu.v8n4a441Keywords:
Iraq , Stock Price Index , Co-integration, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds test, Unrestricted Error Correction Model (UECM)Abstract
This study aims at measuring the impact of some macroeconomic variables on stock prices index in the Iraqi Stock Exchange (ISX) for the monthly data from January 2006 to December 2015 based on (121) observations using the ARDL model. Results indicated that the stock price index of Iraq Stock Exchange (ISX) and macroeconomic variables are co-integrated and a long-run relationship exists between them. The long-run coefficients suggested that the consumer price index (CPI) and money supply (M2) had a negative effect while the Interest-Rate-Current Account (Over Draft) (DR) had a positive effect on the stock prices index. However, the variable exchange rate (EX) did not show significant effect on the stock prices index
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1.1.6التقارير
1. التقرير الاقتصادي السنوي للبنك المركزي العراقي ، 2014. https://cbi.iq/news/section/4
2.1.6الدوريات
1. ادريوش ، دحماني محمد، و بلقايدي، سعدية، وبن قانة ، اسماعيل ، ( 2016) ،دراسة انتقال روؤس الاموال الدولية في إطار العلاقة بين الأستثمار والأدخار في دول المغرب العربي- دراسة قياسية للفترة (1980-2015)، مجلة الدراسات الاقتصادية الكمية ، 2 (2)، ص. 177-189.
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4. الزبيدي ،سالم رشيد،والععموري ،عامر عمران، (2013)،اثر تقلبات اسعار الصرف في المؤشر العام لاسعار الاسهم دراسة تطبيقية- في سوق العراق للاوراق المالية للمدة 2005-2011، مجلة الإدارة والأقتصاد ، جامعة كربلاء، المجلد 3 ، العدد12، ص157-129.
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6.2 English References
6.2.1 Official Publication
1- Annual Reports of the Iraqi Stock Exchange, 2004-2016, Iraq. http://www.isx-iq.net .
2- Iraqi Securities Commission, (2011), Annual Report on Traffic in Iraq Stock Exchange, Research and Studies Department, Iraq. http://www.isc.gov.iq/node/74.
3- Iraqi Securities Commission, Annual Reports on Traffic in the Iraqi Stock Exchange, Department of Research and Studies, 2004-2016, Department of Studies and Research, Iraq.
6.2.2 Thesis
1. Talla, T.(2013). Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on the Stock Market Prices of the Stockholm Stock Exchange (OMXS30) . Master´s Thesis within International Financial Analysis, Jönköping International Business School. http://www.diva-portal.org/smash/get/diva2:630705/FULLTEXT02.
6.2.3 Periodicals
1. Barakat,M.Elgazzar,A. And Hanafy,K.(2016), Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Markets: Evidence from Emerging Markets, International Journal of Economics and Finance; Vol. 8, No. 1,pp 195-205.
2. Chia,R.and Lim,sh.(2015), Malaysian Stock Price And Macroeconomic Variables: Auto Regressive Distrlbuted Lag(ARDL) BoUunds Test, Kajian Malaysia, Vol. 33, No.1,pp, 85–103.
3. Gay,R.(2008). Effect Of Macroeconomic Variables On Stock Market Returns For Four Emerging Economies: Brazil, Russia, India, And China. International Business & Economics Research Journal ,No 7, pp,1-8.
4. Khalid,W.and Khan,S.(2017). Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on the Stock Market Volatility The Pakistan Experience. Global Journal of Management and Business Research, No. 17 ,pp,1-25.
5. Ngos, Le Khanh .,and Hussainey, Khaled.(2009). The Impact of Macroeconomic Indicators On Vietnamese stock prices, The Journal of Risk Finance, Vol.10, No. 4, pp. 321-332.
6. Nijam,H. Ismail,S. And Musthafa,A.(2015), The Impact of Macro-Economic Variables on Stock Market Performance; Evidence From Sri Lanka , Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and Management Sciences, No.2,pp,151-157.
6.2.4 Internet
1. Patel,S.(2012). The effect of Macroeconomic Determinants on the Performance of the Indian Stock Market,Journal of NMIMS Management Review,http://www.nmims.edu/NMIMSmanagementreview.
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