The Economic Costs of Traffic Accidents in the Sulaymaniyah Governorate and its Impact on the Gross Domestic Product (GDP): An Econometric Analytical Study for the period (2030 - 2003)

Abstract

The traffic accident phenomenon represents one of the contemporary economic, social and security problems that carry local, regional and international dimensions. At the same time, there are many and various entities and institutions concerned that have a direct and indirect connection with this rapidly growing phenomenon. In addition, despite the continuous efforts to reduce this phenomenon and mitigate its negative economic, social and human impacts, this phenomenon is still expanding and reaching the alarm stage, especially in the Sulaymaniyah Governorate - Kurdistan Region of Iraq and may amount to a threat to human resources and the economy of the region. Hence, this research aims to shed light on the econometric analysis of the economic costs of traffic accidents in the Sulaymaniyah Governorate and their impact on the gross domestic product (GDP) in the Kurdistan Region for the period (2003 – 2019) using (Stepwise Least Squares and Generalized Linear Model) with some other econometric advanced indicators and applying (ARMA Maximum Likelihood) model to predict the trend of this phenomenon for the period (2020 - 2030).

Finally, the current research reached several conclusions such as that the economic costs of traffic accidents in the Sulaymaniyah governorate increased year after year, and this reflected negatively on the gross domestic product (GDP (in the Kurdistan Region. In 2003, the economic costs in Sulaymaniyah Governorate was (8949 thousand USD), and these losses reached (10080 thousand USD) in 2019, which increased by (12.64%), and the total costs of traffic accidents equal to (142 million USD) during the period (2003 - 2019). Thus, therefore if the economic costs increased by (1%), it led to a decrease in (GDP) of Kurdistan Region by (2.32%). It is expected that economic costs of traffic accidents will increase in the next ten years and will lead to a decrease in the (GDP) by (9.82%).Accordingly, it is necessary to promote and educate vehicle drivers of all kinds and raise awareness through educational programs and media channels, as well as the need to change the goals and policies of the region’s government and the concerned authorities with more interest in rehabilitating the infrastructure by allocating an adequate budget to develop public transport and establish tunnels and bridges. Besides, the government should try to limit the random import of cars, and take into account local requirements and needs, which are one of the main reasons of traffic accidents. The government should also change their goals by monitoring cars rather than focusing on revenue in order to prevent major material and human losses.