Analysis of a number of climatic factors on the temperature in Duhok governorate for the period of time (1/2010 - 10/2017)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.25007/ajnu.v9n4a955Abstract
The focus of attention in this research will be focused on one of the advanced statistical methods, which is the multiple linear regression usually used to describe the relationship between variables, which includes the accuracy of statistical inference of the desired results of the research, as the research dealt with studying a number of climatic variables that were represented by (the proportion of snow, The amount of rain, wind speed and relative humidity) and their effect on temperatures, as the sample is a monthly average of 94 individuals taken from January 2010 until October 2017.
After the studied model was applied to the research sample, the results clarified that there is a statistically significant relationship between each of the variables (snow percentage, amount of rain and relative humidity) with the temperature variable, except for the wind speed variable, it has no statistical indication that it has a role in the changes taking place. In temperatures. After estimating the model that describes the relationship between the variables up to the most important stages on which the accuracy of the desired results of the estimated model is based, which is the stage of studying the residuals generated from it, which represents a fundamental step to consider its efficiency, the results reported that there is a problem of self-correlation for the rest of the estimated model in addition to that it does not follow Normal distribution, and this in itself is a problem and contrary to the assumptions of the least squares method used in estimation, and it cannot be left without reconsidering it. In order to reach the desired goal, which is to rid the remainder of the self-correlation problem, the variables were transformed by taking the time lag of the first degree for all the research variables, and then going back again to estimate the new model and examine the residuals associated with it. The efficiency of the estimated model, in addition, became tracking the normal distribution and thus this defect was eliminated, and this result is sufficient to accept the latest new model estimated as an optimal model for explaining the changes in the rise and fall of temperatures over the years, and it is possible to expect any value we want through this model Just assuming any given value for the independent variables.
Downloads
References
1.1.6الرسائل والاطاريح الجامعية
1. أحمد ، عبدالمعين أحمد محمد ، 2017 ، مشكلة الارتباط الذاتي بالتطبیق على دالة الاستیراد في السودان للفترة (1980-2014) ، رسالة ماجستیر في الاقتصاد التطبیقي ، السودان .
2. مهدي ، مصطفى حبيب ، 2013 ، الخصوبة السكانية في العراق تطورها والعوامل المؤثرة عليها واثرها في تحديد حجم السكان مستقبلاً ، بحث مقدم الى مجلس كلية الادارة والاقتصاد لنيل شهادة دبلوم عالي علوم في الاحصاء التطبيقي ، جامعة بغداد-العراق .
2.1.6الدوريات
1. حسن ، مريم محمد و عاتي ، زينة عبد الحسن ، 2015، تحديد العوامل المؤثرة على ضغط الدم باستخدام نماذج الانحدار ، بحث مقدم الى كلية علوم الحاسوب والرياضيات ، جامعة القادسية – العراق .
3.1.6الكتب
1. الراوي ، خاشع محمود ، 1987 ، المدخل الى تحليل الانحدار ، المكتبة الوطنية ، بغداد - العراق .
2. عطية ، عبدالقادر محمد عبدالقادر ، 2004 ، الاقتصاد القياسي بين النظرية والتطبيق ، مكة المكرمة .
2.6المصادر الاجنبية
6.2.1 Articles
1. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Dagenais, Marcel G. ,1985, Durbin-Watson tests for serial correlation in regressions with missing observations, Journal of econometrics, vol 27, 371-381, North Holland.
6.2.2 Books
1- Darlington, Richard B. & Hayes, Andrew F., 2017, Regression Analysis and Linear Models, The Guilford Press publication, New York, London.
2. Draper, Norman R. & Smith, Harry, 1998, Applied Regression Analysis, john wiley & sons, inc. publication, 3rd ed, Canada.
3. Garson, G. David, 2012, Testing statistical assumptions, G. David Garson and statistical associates publishing, north carolina state.
4. Rencher, Alvin C., 2002, Methods of Multivariate Analysis, john wiley & sons, inc. publication, Canada.
5. Montgomery, Douglas C. ; Peck, Elizabeth & Vining, G. Geoffey, 2012, Introduction to linear regression analysis, Fifth Edition, john wiley & sons, inc. publication, Canada.
6. Olive, David J., 2010, Multiple Linear and 1D Regression, Carbondale, Southern Illinois, USA
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Authors retain copyright
The use of a Creative Commons License enables authors/editors to retain copyright to their work. Publications can be reused and redistributed as long as the original author is correctly attributed.
- Copyright
- The researcher(s), whether a single or joint research paper, must sell and transfer to the publisher (the Academic Journal of Nawroz University) through all the duration of the publication which starts from the date of entering this Agreement into force, the exclusive rights of the research paper/article. These rights include the translation, reuse of papers/articles, transmit or distribute, or use the material or parts(s) contained therein to be published in scientific, academic, technical, professional journals or any other periodicals including any other works derived from them, all over the world, in English and Arabic, whether in print or in electronic edition of such journals and periodicals in all types of media or formats now or that may exist in the future. Rights also include giving license (or granting permission) to a third party to use the materials and any other works derived from them and publish them in such journals and periodicals all over the world. Transfer right under this Agreement includes the right to modify such materials to be used with computer systems and software, or to reproduce or publish it in e-formats and also to incorporate them into retrieval systems.
- Reproduction, reference, transmission, distribution or any other use of the content, or any parts of the subjects included in that content in any manner permitted by this Agreement, must be accompanied by mentioning the source which is (the Academic Journal of Nawroz University) and the publisher in addition to the title of the article, the name of the author (or co-authors), journal’s name, volume or issue, publisher's copyright, and publication year.
- The Academic Journal of Nawroz University reserves all rights to publish research papers/articles issued under a “Creative Commons License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction of the paper/article by any means, provided that the original work is correctly cited.
- Reservation of Rights
The researcher(s) preserves all intellectual property rights (except for the one transferred to the publisher under this Agreement).
- Researcher’s guarantee
The researcher(s) hereby guarantees that the content of the paper/article is original. It has been submitted only to the Academic Journal of Nawroz University and has not been previously published by any other party.
In the event that the paper/article is written jointly with other researchers, the researcher guarantees that he/she has informed the other co-authors about the terms of this agreement, as well as obtaining their signature or written permission to sign on their behalf.
The author further guarantees:
- The research paper/article does not contain any defamatory statements or illegal comments.
- The research paper/article does not violate other's rights (including but not limited to copyright, patent, and trademark rights).
This research paper/article does not contain any facts or instructions that could cause damages or harm to others, and publishing it does not lead to disclosure of any confidential information.